2005 Consolidated Annual Evaluation & Performance Report
Affordable Housing Outcome Indicators

In a healthy local housing market:

1. The rental vacancy rate would be between 3% and 5%.

Why 3 to 5%?   A rental vacancy rate between 3% and 5% is generally considered by most experts to be “balanced.” When it falls below that level, a lack of supply will lead to spiraling rent increases, leave people unable to find housing, and limit economic growth.

Where are we coming from?   For five years (between June 1996 and June 2001), the rental vacancy rate in Chittenden County was extremely low - below 1%. It has improved somewhat at times since then, but dropped back to 1.4 % in June 2006. By comparison, the national rental vacancy rate in June 2006 was 9.6%, while the rate overall in the Northeast was 6.9%.

You can also view this information in a table format.

How do we measure this?   The rental vacancy rate for the county is measured every six months by the Allen and Brooks Report. National and regional rates are reported by the Census Bureau.

2. At least 65% of Burlington renters would be able to afford their housing in five years.

What does it mean to be able to afford rental housing?   We’re using the Census definition, which says that a household should spend no more than 30% of its gross income on housing and utilities. Otherwise, the household is “cost-burdened” by its housing costs.

Will we ever get to 100%?   Probably not, because there are around 6,000 college students living off campus in Burlington, mostly in rental housing. They may be spending more than 30% of their income on housing, but that is probably a temporary condition.

Where are we coming from?   As of 2000, 53.2% of Burlington renters could afford their housing.

How do we measure this?   The Census measures the number of cost-burdened renters every 10 years.

3. At least 90% of Burlington homeowners would be able to afford their housing in five years.

What does it mean to be able to afford the home you own?   Again, we’re using the Census definition, which says that a household should spend no more than 30% of its gross income on mortgage, taxes and insurance. Otherwise, the household is “cost-burdened” by its housing costs.

Will we ever get to 100%?   Maybe not, because Burlington homeowners are aging in place (over 40% are age 55 and older), and it’s difficult either to lower housing costs or to raise household income for homeowners who are retired.

Where are we coming from?   As of 2000, 78.2% of Burlington homeowners could afford their housing.

How do we measure this?   The Census measures the number of cost-burdened homeowners every 10 years.

4. Affordable housing would be available in every Chittenden County community.

Where are we coming from?   In 1998, a study measured the geographic distribution of affordable rental housing in Chittenden County. It found that 68% of the county’s affordable rental units were concentrated in Burlington and Winooski. For Chittenden County homeowners (according to median home sales prices information from the Vermont Department of Taxes for the years 2000-02), homeownership is most affordable in Bolton, Burlington, Huntington, and Winooski.

How do we measure this?   The Regional Planning Commission has now set goals for each Chittenden County municipality. They can be viewed at http://www.ccrpcvt.org/index.asp?Type=B_BASIC&SEC={938B0E69-458C-4CFE-8777-02C9AA672950}. Seventy percent of the towns in Chittenden County have signed on to the RPC affordable housing targets.

5. The rate of homeownership in low and moderate-income neighborhoods would increase by 15% in five years.

Which neighborhoods are we talking about?   Census tracts 3, 4, 5, 6, and 10 – which translate roughly into the Old North End, King Street and Lakeside neighborhoods, and Ward One.  See Map of Targeted Areas for Homeownership Increase.

Where are we coming from?   Burlington, like other urban areas, has lower homeownership rates than surrounding suburban areas. The City’s homeownership rates dropped significantly between 1970 and 1980, with a concurrent increase in the college student population and the number of single-person households. The homeownership rate continued to drop between 1980 and 1990, but then began to rise in the following decade. As of 2000, the rate for tracts 3, 4, 5, 6, and 10 were, respectively, 30.9%, 13.06%, 16.5%, 34.4% and 20.9%. The overall City rate was 41.5%.

How do we measure this?   The Census measures housing “tenure,” i.e., whether you own or rent your housing, every 10 years.

6. Homelessness would decrease.

Where are we coming from?   The last local point-in-time count, conducted in January 2006, found 181 homeless people, sheltered and unsheltered, in our community. The trends are going in the wrong direction.

You can also view this information in a table format.

How do we measure this?   All of the homeless providers in the City do an annual “point-in-time” count, usually in mid-winter. (The 2004 point-in-time count was conducted in the summer, and therefore shows different results.) On a given night, they count the number of people in shelter beds. The following morning, they do surveys at the local food shelf to reach the “unsheltered.” We are currently working on better ways to measure the number of homeless people in the City.

7. The number of Burlington children with elevated lead levels would decrease to less than 2%.

Where are we coming from?   In 1995, over 19% of the children tested in the City had elevated levels of lead in their blood. Of those children, 3.6% had severely elevated levels. Those percentages have declined significantly, though cases of severe poisoning still occur.

You can also view this information in a table format.

How do we measure this?   The Vermont Department of Health screens 1 and 2 year old children for lead poisoning every year. (Note: The test results shown here are different from those shown in previous outcome measures due to a change in the way the Health Department defines data.)

Page last updated August 22, 2006